These are unordinary times in the state of our union.  America seems more polarized socially, economically and politically now than historically.  The advent of social media has significantly altered influences into voter impressions and voter action. 

 

In the 2016 presidential elections, political polls and media coverage of impending political outcomes seemed significantly off the mark.  We have to further question the source of political polls - which have traditionally been overweighted towards liberal demographics, making the political polls less predictive. 

 

Widespread gerrymandering has also diluted the 1 person, 1 vote system, making it even harder for researchers to accurately understand and predict election outcomes.

What can we expect in 2018 and 2020, based on the trends' currently?  A major upset.  Why?  Because historically, mid-term and special elections continue to be referendum votes on the sitting President's party. 

Over the past 21 mid-term elections, the President's party lost an average of
30 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senat
e.
1  

We asked Alabamans how they felt about the the special Senate Election in 2017 and found some interesting trends.

In Alabama, the first democrat was elected to the Senate in over 25 years.  What that confirms is that

1.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election

© 2011 by LP